Poker odds and outs
How likely you are to hit your draw, and when a call is worth making.
7 min read · Updated 9 October 2026
What an out is
An out is a card still in the deck that would give you the hand you need. With four hearts after the flop, nine hearts are left in the deck: you have nine outs to a flush. After the flop you have seen five cards, so 47 are unseen; after the turn, 46.
Your chances of hitting
Exact probabilities of completing a draw, counted over the unseen cards:
| Draw | Outs | Flop → river (two cards) | Turn → river (one card) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw + open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.1% | 32.6% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 35.0% | 19.6% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| Two overcards (to make a pair) | 6 | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| Pocket pair to a set | 2 | 8.4% | 4.3% |
The rule of 2 and 4
A quick estimate at the table: multiply your outs by 4 on the flop when you will see both the turn and the river, or by 2 when only one card is to come. Nine outs on the flop: 9 × 4 = 36%, close to the true 35.0%. The rule overstates big draws — 15 outs gives 60% against a true 54.1% — so lean lower with many outs.
Times 4 assumes you will see both cards. If an opponent can bet you off your draw on the turn, use times 2 for the card you are actually paying to see.
Pot odds: is the call worth it?
Pot odds compare the price of a call with what you can win. The pot holds $0.30 and your opponent bets $0.10: you must call $0.10 to win $0.40 in total, so you need to win more than 0.10 ÷ (0.40 + 0.10) = 20% of the time for the call to pay.
With a flush draw on the turn (19.6%), that call is roughly break-even. With an open-ended straight draw (17.4%) it loses a little — unless you expect to win more when you hit, which players call implied odds.
Before the flop
- A pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time — about one flop in eight.
- Two unpaired cards flop at least a pair 32.4% of the time.
- Suited cards flop a flush 0.8% of the time, and a flush draw 10.9%.
Typical all-in match-ups when all five cards are dealt (rounded; exact figures shift a little with suits):
| Match-up | Example | Favourite wins about |
|---|---|---|
| Higher pair vs lower pair | K K vs Q Q | 82% |
| Pair vs two lower cards | Q Q vs J 10 | 80% |
| Dominated hand | A K vs A Q | 74% |
| Pair vs one overcard | 10 10 vs A 9 | 70% |
| Two high cards vs two lower cards | A K vs 7 6 | 60–65% |
| Pair vs two overcards ("coin flip") | Q Q vs A K | 55% |
Questions
- What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
- With nine outs after the flop, 35.0% by the river (seeing two cards) and 19.6% with one card to come.
- What is the rule of 2 and 4 in poker?
- Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop (two cards to come) or by 2 on the turn (one card to come) to estimate your chance of hitting, in percent.
- How do you calculate pot odds?
- Divide the amount you must call by the total pot after your call. Calling $10 into a pot that will be $50 needs 20% equity to break even.
- How often does a pocket pair flop a set?
- About 11.8% of the time — roughly one flop in eight.
18+ only. Play responsibly — see responsible gaming.